hype vs BS

Maintain healthy skepticism to AI based BS

And this goes both ways:

• Some folks will hype AI beyond its real capability; and
• Others will argue till they’re red in the face its not effective.

Both are wrong of course.

This is why healthy skeptisim is so important. Wrong assumptions are costly and here is a set of lenses to think about truth vs hype:

1. You might purchase software or tools, that ultimately don’t deliver: Think iPhone 16 and Apple intelligence. Classic example.
2. The tools you use may have no ability to scale beyond your needs: This is a risk if you use consumer tools in enterprise environments.
3. You may spend months collaborating with people that bullshitted about their skills, or aren’t aligned to your goals: Healthy skeptism would have identified that earlier.
4. You could spend months or years learning new content that doesn’t benefit you: Look at a substantial proportion of AI courses being taught by Universities today.

Each and every one of the above failures could have been avoided had you had a better bullshit detector.

The truth is, we live in a world based on hype. Every company, service and startup is trying to sell you a vision. The market is saturated with products and services that don’t deliver.

Why hype is so dangerous to progress

It’s a classic cycle:

• Something ‘revolutionary’ comes along.
• Everyone starts talking about it, prices rise and FOMO kicks in.
• Then when you get it, it’s never as good as you thought.
• Then the hype dies and you move on.

How many times in your life have you wasted time and money on something pointless like that?

I think it happens to most people every other month.

Why its so insideous to your success:

• It eats your time: You spend hours learning a tool thats obsolete in six months.
• It costs you money: Every dollar you spend on bullshit is not a dollar invested in growth.
• It eats your focus: You spend all your time focused on the wrong thing, to the detriment of what is.
• Ultimately people start lying to themselves: A lot of people don’t even realise they’re caught in a Bullshit Cycle. They just ride it over and over again and its terrible.

How to avoid being the hyped up sucker

Truth seeking is about seeing things clearly, doubting everything, and being judicious with resources.

Here's how to strip away the hype:

• Look at the real data: Skip flashy ads and examine actual numbers and the practical differences. A 10% processor improvement might sound great but what does that mean in the real world?
• Follow the economic incentive: Consider who's making claims and their motivations. Ask whether reviews are genuine or sponsored.
• Think for yourself: Evaluate the actual product - its size, weight, feel, robustness, and whether its specifications translate into real world performance.
• Implement a cooling off period: Before purchasing a product, assess if you really need it. Compare it to alternatives or things you already own first.

If a product passes these tests, buy it. Hell buy the premium version. The old saying the Poor Man Pays twice has some truth to it.

Mental models to detect bullshit

Techniques to identify obvious bullshit:

• Use the 5 whys technique: When someone makes a claim, ask "why" multiple times. By the fifth layer, you'll usually uncover the truth as to whether the claim is bullshit or not.
• Question the data: When you hear impressive statistics like ("Sales up 500%!"), ask what the baseline was. Often, percentages hide unimpressive absolute numbers (100 units to 500 units vs. competitors' millions for example).
• Be skeptical of testimonials: Consider who's giving the review, their expectations, and frame of reference. What impresses one person may be substandard to another. The context matters.
• Consider the source: Marketing is designed to sell. “Reviewers" receive free products and cater to broad audiences. Look for authentic feedback from real purchasers.
• Match the hype to lived usage: Buy cheap products for occasional use, and invest in quality for daily items. There’s no point buying tier 1 quality items if you’re only going to use them once.

Buy based on actual needs and usage patterns, not universal "best" recommendations. This prevents purchase regrets.

If you observe claims that resemble anything like this, it's almost certainly bullshit

• Vague promises: This will ‘change your life’.
• Urgency scams: “Buy now or miss out!”.

Conclusion

Developing a strong BS detector isn't just about avoiding scams, it's about reclaiming your judgement.

True freedom comes when you see through hype and make decisions based on reality rather than manufactured excitement.

The cost of falling for hype cycles is substantial:

• Wasted time learning obsolete tools
• Squandered money on non performing products
• Scattered focus preventing mastery of anything
• Time spent investing in the wrong people.

It’s important to separate hype from reality. The way you do this is as follows:

• Invest in proven capabilities: Choose tools and skills with staying power that form effective systems. Quality matters for the things you'll rely on longterm.
• Protect your resources: Direct your time, energy, and money toward what genuinely delivers results.
• Scale strategically: Validate before investing heavily. Get revenue flowing before upgrading your toolkit.
• Commit where it counts: Don't hesitate to invest substantially in tools that genuinely multiply your effectiveness. While others cut corners, strategic investment in the right tools creates meaningful advantages.

Healthy skepticism isn’t cynicism. It’s the foundation of informed decision making.

In the world of personal agency - impulsive choices are costing you more than you know.