The AI industry is a cess pitt of promises, half truths, and strategic maneuvering.
While executives from companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Microsoft tout ethics and incremental progress, the reality is far more ambitious - and disruptive.
Here is a sharper take on what ‘might’ really be happening
The ethics smokescreen is a control mechanism and BS
When AI burst onto the scene, Altman and others told us that AI was the biggest change ever, whilst saying endlessly we need to be ethical. We had more discussion on ethics during the early phases of the AI launch than about the technology itself.
Governments and regulators ate it up, spawning a cottage industry of academics and pundits claiming expertise in AI regulation despite shallow understanding.
I don’t think this was sincere, or an accident.
The ethics frenzy served as a distraction, buying time for AI companies to solidify their positions while legacy organizations remained unprepared. Worse again - it gave legacy organisations, politicians and Unions time to organise resistance measures to AI at a large scale.
This in my opinion guaranteed the destruction of many legacy organisations in the medium to long term.
Why this matters:
- Legacy industries, mired in outdated IT and poor data management, are often not even true capitalist organisations. They are the creation of rigid regulation, incapable of rapid transformation.
- The ethics narrative slowed scrutiny, buying the AI giants time to amass more data, funding and market dominance uder the guise of responsibility.
Another fact to back this theory up is the lack of a roadmap.
Every 6 months or so, AI capabilities double in capacity. It’s an interesting fact given the rate of technological expansion. Look at xAI. It was able to build a 200,000 GPU datacentre at a new site, in 120 days. Insane levels of progress.
We don’t even have, a rudimentary outline of what’s coming, yet investments of that scale are being implemented at pace.
Could it be trut that the path is already set. We’re just not being told yet.
Consumer tools are just a trojan horses
The AI tools flooding the market, chatbots, copilots, image generators - while useful, offer limited power compared to what private companies can do.
They are not the endgame; they are the conditioning element; - and essentially the bait.
It’s possible these tools are simply ways to acclimate users to AI, collect training data, attract investment while masking the true capabilities being developed behind closed doors.
And there is a form of duplicity going on too, in the way these tools are being integrated into legacy technology platforms.
Could it be possible that companies are playing both sides of the fence? They offer expensive but limited capability uplifts in their legacy platforms to keep that business chugging along, whilst under other brand names build out new products and services that could take over whole industries?
The real prize is industry itself
The media fixates on AI augmenting individual job tasks - and that’ll take your job.
While it is true general productivity could threaten some menial jobs, that’s unlikely to be the real disruption.
Let’s model this by an example.
Let’s say we roll out a $30/month CoPilot license to a 5,000 person company that generates $1B in revenue. That’s a 1.8% cost to the business. When a lot of businesses only spend 3-4 or 6-7% of revenue on IT, 1.8% is a massive cost.
But is that the prize the AI company truly wants? The real opportunity could lie in replacing those businesses entirely with AI driven models that are 10x better and 10x cheaper to deliver.
New industries, new products, new power structures.
The shift isn’t just about efficiency in the micro, it’s also going to be able redefining commerce itself. This could lead to massive deflation as legacy cost structures collapse, creating an ‘abundance’ dividend - where goods and services become radically cheaper.
That moves us to what society might look like
In this model, society may split essentially into 4 types of people:
- the Digital Peasants. People that effectively benefit from the efficiency gains of AI in terms of cost of living and life. Efficiency gains mean they’ll likely have digital service access, a place to eat, plenty of food and healthcare - but there agency in the world will be severely limited.
- the Rulers of Humans. Basically humans will always want to be governed by Humans, but there will be those in this new world that will want to rule other humans or work in human industries. Policing, the judiciary, aged care, child care, entertainment — and many many government services will fall into this category.
- then we’ll have the Technocrats. People that essentially work for the new industries and what’s left of the old industries. Yes a lot of jobs will be displaced in the old world, but it’s likely millions more will be replaced with new products and services. So many people will still work for these companies in future; and finally
- the Agents of the AI era. These people will self form, and create products and services in partnership with the technocrats to service the Rulers of Humans and the Digital Peasants. This will be a new class of work - based on new technologies, marketing and sales, and organising capabilities into products and services people want.
There is however going to be a lot of ‘gotcha’s’ on the new path
Here are some things to think about:
- You may think you are safe in your historically safe job: You are not. No one is.
- You may think if you’re good at AI - that’ll protect you: Nope, even the experts will get fired.
- Building a technical start-up is very risky right now- Why? Because the platform capabilities DOUBLE every 6 months. What you could do 18 months ago, looks ridiculous now. You want to focus on adaptability, not specialisation at the moment.
- You want to avoid deep product loyalty: AI tools are chaning constantly. It is probably wise right now not to place all your AI skills in one basket. You perahsp want to master a flexible range of tools, that are cheap, accessible, and can be turned on and off to manage costs.
What I’d do right now to prepare for the new world:
- Train like a fighter:
- Hone every skill you have. Technology, business, learning. You want to learn advanced prompt engineering, software development, and master domain skills including online marketing, pursuasion, sales, and advanced communications.
- When the tools mature you want to be ready to deploy skills with precision and in novel and unique ways. It is very unlikely you’ll be able to fully deploy these skills in legacy organisations.
- But be careful. There will be a period of transition from the old world to the new world. Millions of people will be displaced. You need to be ready for that. You can’t assume your existing class and income will remain valid in the foreseeable future. That’s why you need to start training today.
- Speed and adaptability is your biggest asset:
- Those that learn how to move fast, being able to build, sell or pivot before markets consolidate will win big. Unimaginable amounts of potential is just sitting there. Long contracts or heavy corporate entanglements will likely trap you in the rapidly changing landscape, so get the balance right.
The monopoly trap
There is a delusion in the west that we live in a capitalist society; but it’s simply not true.
Our markets are heavily regulated and favor entrenched player interests with capital.
The AI players, are that on steroids. They have near unlimited capital and human resources. Being able to compete in the old world, as we operate today is very difficult.
Breaking into markets often requires something much more than a good idea, you need all the other enablers to make it happen. It is not however impossible.
It’s also important to point out Indirect Value:
- Cash legacy businesses will need help pivoting to AI.
- You could partner with them, not as a hired hand but as a stakeholder sharing in the upside.
- The psychology of this is acute however.
- Legacy companies will want to behave like they always have. They pay you for a service to get an advantage. If you truly want a chip in the game you’ll have to figure out how to resist this to maximise your impact.
- Sometimes the best game might be to simply say you’re doing something, and offer them a set. If they dont take it offer it to someone else.
- Don’t be a patsy.
The final point is - stay agile:
- In a world of regulatory barriers and corporate dominance, freedom to manuver is your greatest asset. Avoid getting bogged down in slow moving structures.
Conclusion
AI’s trojectory points to a world where industries, costs and power dynamics are fundamentally reshaped. Skepticism of corporate narratives is essential. The opportunity is vast, but only for those who move fast, stay adaptable, and focus on creating value in a rapidly evolving landscape. The future isn’t just coming, it’s already here, hidden in plain sight.
Start training or become the patsy.